Former U.S. President Donald Trump is gearing up to reinstate his “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, aiming to push the country towards economic collapse. This strategy seeks to weaken Iran's ability to fund its regional proxies and continue its nuclear weapons development. According to The Financial Times, sources familiar with the matter have confirmed that Trump’s team plans to intensify sanctions, especially on Iran's vital oil exports, once he re-enters the White House in January 2025.
The Strategy: A Push Toward Financial Collapse
Trump’s goal is clear: to push Iran to the brink of bankruptcy. A national security expert close to the developments mentioned that Trump is determined to implement this strategy swiftly. The plan represents a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy amid ongoing instability in the Middle East, especially after the October 7, 2023, Israel-Gaza conflict, which fueled regional tensions and made the Israel-Iran shadow war more visible.
A Renewed Focus on Sanctions
Trump has been vocal about his desire to strike a new deal with Iran, suggesting that “we need to make a deal because the consequences are unimaginable.” While the idea of direct negotiations remains a challenge, Trump’s team believes that “maximum pressure” could force Iran to the negotiating table, despite the skepticism of many experts who view this as unlikely.
During his first term, Trump initiated the “maximum pressure” campaign by withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and imposing hundreds of sanctions. As a result, Iran ramped up its nuclear activities, including enriching uranium to near-weapon-grade levels. Although President Joe Biden’s administration maintained some sanctions, they were less strictly enforced, and Biden's focus shifted toward reviving the nuclear deal.
Iran’s Resilience: Oil Exports on the Rise
Despite the pressure, Iran has managed to increase its oil exports significantly. In the past four years, its oil shipments have more than tripled, rising from a low of 400,000 barrels per day in 2020 to over 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024. Nearly all of these shipments are sent to China, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
This resilience showcases Iran’s ability to adapt, but experts argue that intensified sanctions could still have a substantial impact, especially on its ability to fund regional activities and nuclear development.
The Road Ahead: High Stakes for the U.S. and Iran
As Trump prepares for his second term, the world watches closely to see whether this renewed "maximum pressure" approach will yield results. While some believe that Iran may eventually be forced into talks, the question remains: will this strategy truly cripple Iran’s economy, or will it lead to further escalation in an already volatile region?
For now, the U.S. is betting on sanctions to break Iran’s economic backbone, but only time will tell if this gamble will pay off.